Why Irene will be powerful

The two issues in this storm are 1) rainfall/flooding and 2) wind/tides.

The diameter and forward speed of the rain-bands is critical for the first. The track is critical for the second. A New Jersey landfall with forward direction into the Catskills or New England will use its low pressure (we’re talking 966 954 milli-bars – Donna 1960 was 930 mB) to blow and suck storm surge off the ocean and into our bays and, ahem, creeks.  Even a more easterly landfall will blow water into Long Island Sound.  The high tides are all ready high due to moon orbit and cycle.  High tides are near midnight Sunday into Monday in the western Sound.

Detailed FEMA Greenwich Maps of the outcome are posted at Earth Image
http://96.56.48.67/FEMA-FIRM/ for your consideration as a humanitarian service.

The fuel source of this power is the ocean surface temperature. Note the 90’s along the path:

Starting to look Katrina-sized.

Models:

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